The growing tensions between the United States and China are increasingly highlighting a significant gap between the two nations' readiness for a potential conflict. As China ramps up its military capabilities, the U.S. defense industrial base faces critical shortfalls, leaving America potentially unprepared for a protracted war.
China has been methodically strengthening its military for years. Its defense industry is rapidly producing advanced weaponry, including aircraft, missiles, and naval systems designed specifically to counter U.S. power in the Pacific. These developments are part of China’s broader strategy to deter the U.S. or, if deterrence fails, to win a great-power conflict. According to recent analysis, China has already caught up with the U.S. in mass production of critical weapons systems. Notably, Beijing is focusing heavily on expanding its naval capabilities and missile forces, which could give it a decisive advantage in a regional conflict, particularly in the Taiwan Strait.
🇨🇳China test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Wednesday, firing it into the Pacific Ocean in its first such exercise in decades. pic.twitter.com/SjwRJyTFTh
— WORLD AT WAR (@World_At_War_6) September 25, 2024
In contrast, the United States, despite its $19 trillion investment in military spending since the Cold War, has struggled to maintain its edge. While the U.S. still possesses the world’s largest fleet of fifth-generation aircraft, such as the F-35, it faces significant challenges in munitions production and maintaining a resilient defense industrial base. U.S. defense contractors, hampered by inconsistent government orders and supply chain bottlenecks, are not producing the necessary quantities of munitions and other critical components to sustain a long-term conflict. A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warns that in the event of a major conflict with China, the U.S. would quickly exhaust its munitions stockpiles, leaving its military vulnerable.
The situation is compounded by vulnerabilities in U.S. supply chains, many of which are reliant on foreign sources, including China. For example, China dominates the global market for rare-earth metals, which are essential for the production of high-tech weaponry. Additionally, the U.S. has a limited domestic capacity to produce key components, such as the rocket motors used in cruise missiles. This reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly from potential adversaries, puts the U.S. at a significant disadvantage.
🇷🇺Russian tank vs 🇨🇳Chinese tank russia india china tanks 🤣 pic.twitter.com/exPVzn8h0d
— WarRoom Archives (@War_Rum) October 1, 2024
Experts are raising alarms over the U.S.'s lack of preparation. Admiral Philip Davidson, former head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China could initiate a military strike against Taiwan within the next decade. Such a conflict would likely drag the U.S. into a direct military confrontation with China. However, unless the U.S. makes significant changes to its defense strategy, including ramping up munitions production and securing supply chains, it may find itself unable to sustain a prolonged fight.
The gap in readiness is also reflected in the U.S. military’s procurement practices. Defense contractors are hesitant to expand production without long-term, multiyear contracts from the Department of Defense (DoD). This has resulted in inconsistent production levels and a lack of sufficient stockpiles for critical weapons systems, such as the Javelin anti-tank missile and advanced missile defense systems. To address these issues, analysts suggest that the U.S. government needs to commit to larger, sustained procurement contracts that provide defense companies with the financial security to ramp up production.
In response to these challenges, some lawmakers and military leaders are calling for a return to Cold War-era levels of defense spending and industrial mobilization. They argue that only a significant boost in military production, combined with efforts to secure domestic supply chains, can prepare the U.S. for the threat posed by China. However, political and budgetary constraints have so far hindered efforts to implement these changes, leaving the U.S. defense posture vulnerable.
As China continues to rise militarily, the U.S. must confront the uncomfortable reality that its current defense capabilities may not be enough to deter or win a conflict with Beijing. Without urgent reforms to its defense industrial base, America risks falling behind in the next great-power competition.
